Uganda has been one of the most reliable allies of the struggle for the liberation of South Sudan, owing to the personal friendship between President Museveni of Uganda and John Garang de Maboir, the former leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) dating back to the 1970s. Uganda supported the SPLM with logistics and personnel throughout the liberation struggle, and was one of the few countries that openly supported the 2011 referendum for the independence of South Sudan. Following the death of John Garang in July of 2005, his second in command Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit took over the leadership of the liberation, and continued the strong links with Uganda. To date, Uganda is widely seen as the closest ally of the Kiir government. In 2013 when the civil war broke out, Uganda sent troops to protect the Kiir regime.
Uganda’s interest in South Sudan lies in the fact that South Sudan provides a buffer that protects Uganda’s border from the aggression from Sudan (a long term supporter of the Joseph Kony insurgency in northern Uganda). Therefore it is in Uganda’s interest to have a friendly regime in power in South Sudan. Despite the clear favoritism towards the Kiir regime since the outbreak of the civil war, to the extent of even labeling the rebel leader Dr. Riak Machar as a criminal ‘who will be crashed’, Uganda has of recent softened its stance towards the rebel movements, preferring to engage all of them for the sake of peace in the country. In January 2016, President Museveni even had a one-on-one meeting with Dr. Machar, something that was virtually unthinkable a year earlier.
The international community recognizes the influence that President Museveni has on President Kiir; in 2013, the United Nations asked Museveni to mediate peace between the warring parties in South Sudan. Uganda’s interest in leading parallel negotiations in South Sudan is grounded in the fact that South Sudan is an important economic and strategic ally to Uganda. South Sudan is one the biggest importer of Uganda’s goods, before the outbreak of the civil war, Uganda earned an estimated $900 million from exports to South Sudan. Therefore, whatever the outcome of the negotiations, or whoever ends up taking power in South Sudan, it is in Uganda’s interest to play a role to ensure that the next regime is friendly to the Kampala government.
In trying to find numerous working solutions to the civil strife in South Sudan, many influential figures in the country have been solicited to give their input on how to resolve the crisis. Madam Rebecca Nyadeng (widow of the fallen liberation war hero John Garang) is one of those figures that have been brought to the forefront. Whereas Madam Rebecca has not been actively involved in politics of the country, she is highly respected by the SPLM leadership and sections of the South Sudan population and is referred to by some as the ‘mother of the nation’. Therefore her opinion receives wide listenership, especially among the women. She is widely known for her campaign for peace and prosperity and is regarded a lover of peace in South Sudan, therefore her engagement is crucial in galvanizing support for the peace negotiations.
The search for peace resulted into the signing of the Compromise Peace agreement in 2015, which reinstituted leader of the SPLM-in-opposition Dr. Riak Machar to the position of 1st Vice President in 2015. However, the agreement didn’t last for long. The SPLM army attacked Dr. Machar’s troops, causing him to flee to Congo, consequently ending up in Sudan and later to South Africa for treatment. Upon lobbying from the Juba regime, Dr. Machar was placed under house arrest in South Africa where he still is. In his absence, his former deputy, Gen. Taban Deng Gai was named as his replacement in the 1st Vice presidency position, a move that split the loyalties of the rebel movement with some remaining loyal to Dr. Machar and other going with Gen. Taban.
This was widely seen as a smart move by the Kiir regime, aimed at reducing or even wiping out the relevance of Dr. Machar from the politics of the country, and is seen to have worked to some extent since the split in the SPLM-IO significantly weakened the rebel force. However, some generals and many people, mostly in the Nuer community, have remained loyal to Dr. Machar, prompting the IGAD to reconsider its position on the role of Dr. Machar in ending the crisis. In recent months, efforts have been made to engage him in the peace process; however, Dr. Machar insists that any role he can supposedly play is conditioned on his release from house arrest in South Africa.
Regarding the scheduled 2018 elections, it was highly unlikely that the elections would be held. The elections were supposed to be held in 2015, but a vote by the South Sudan Legislative assembly extended the term of the current government by three more years. The reason for the extension was that the country was fractured by war and so it was impossible to hold credible elections. To this day, nothing much has changed, to the contrary, the country has been fractured even further; the war has even spread to the Equatoria region, which had not been affected prior to the resumption of fighting in 2015. Additionally, the SPLM still control the Parliament, therefore a further extension of the tenure of the government would not be a problem. Indeed in June 2018, the tenure of the government was unilaterally extended by the members of the Legislative Assembly, keeping the Kiir faction of the SPLM in power for another three years. Besides, there is no opposition to speak of that would hold the government to account, and given the fact that many people blame President Kiir’s weak leadership for the devastation of the war, it is likely that he would lose an election. Therefore there is no pressure or the incentive on the part of the government to hold the elections anytime soon.
The main rebel movement led by Dr. Machar was widely seen as the strongest opposition to President KIir, it is however is coalition of many rebel groups that chose to come together under the leadership of Dr. Machar. In addition, there are many other smaller rebel groups that are also fighting the Kiir government on their own. These include among others; Dr. Lam Akol, who was an ally of Dr. Machar and minister of Agriculture under the Compromise Peace Agreement, a position he resigned from in July 2016; Gen. Johnson Olony, a shilluk tribesman who commands the “Aguelek” faction of the rebel force, and recent governor appointee of Fashoda state; and Gen. Thomas Cilliro, a Bari tribesman who commands a recently formed rebel outfit, the National Salvation Front. All these rebel leaders command some form of influence mostly in their tribal communities, and their loyalties are loosely associated with Dr. Riak Machar. Of the three, Gen. Johnson Olony who has echoed the strongest support for Dr. Machar, he recently turned down an offer to negotiate with the IGAD initiative for peace, insisting that he is a military man under the command of Dr. Machar.
Sudan remains a very important player in the South Sudan conflict. Given the fact that Sudan has previously (albeit unofficially) supported insurgency in South Sudan, its role cannot be underestimated. Much as there is no official evidence to show that Sudan supports any of the rebel movements with money, weapons or logistics, that assumption cannot be overlooked, given the fact that Sudan has been a destabilizing force in South Sudan since independence. This, coupled with the fact that Dr. Riak Machar maintains friendly relations with the Khartoum regime, makes it indispensable in any effort to bring peace to South Sudan. To this end, Sudan’s Omar El Bashir has been a central figure in pushing for the latest round of peace talks between President Kiir and Dr. Machar.
Overall, South Sudan is a key strategic nation for Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, and even Congo. Therefore its geo-political significance is far reaching for all IGAD member states. Therefore, it makes sense for the regional leaders to try and find a lasting solution to the conflict that has resulted into the breakdown of the economy, as well as a humanitarian disaster on the region. Whatever their motivations, the IGAD leaders have a responsibility to ensure a stable and peaceful South Sudan.